2021年全球经济体第四季度通货膨胀报告（英）-ECI-2021-39页(1)

REPORT ISSUE 28 Q4 2021 Photo: ESB Professional / Shutterstock ECI Media Management Q4 2021 inflation report update .3 .12 .14 .15 .16 .37 .38 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Global Events in fact, the offline recovery compared to 2020 is greater than online, albeit from a lower base. The story is of course different across regions and markets, depending on a swathe of factors including government responses to the pandemic, vaccine rollouts and economic health prior to the pandemic. The story also evolves with the changing context. That is why we at ECI Media Management release this update to our annual inflation report; with both consumer behavior and media pricing so entwined with the prevailing economic context and, now, the recovery from the pandemic, it is crucial that marketers have up-to-date ination easily available so they can make sound investment decisions, backed by data and reinforced by context. In this update, we explore the effect that the continued Covid-19 recovery is having on media inflation in key markets globally, how the outlook has changed over the course of 2021 and provide some initial thoughts as to what 2022 could look like. Our analysts across the world harness their deep knowledge of the advertising landscape with industry-leading forensic data analysis skills to understand how media inflation has evolved. Our ination is derived from a number of sources, including our global network of experts, real client data and agencies. We cross-reference it with data from industry bodies and publications, as well as with agency traders and media vendors, meaning that it holistically reflects the expertise of those with an impact on trading variables. We hope that this update will play a valuable role in your toolkit as you prepare for 2022 and beyond. cutive summary Photo: ESB Professional / Shutterstock E C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1 , Q 4 – P A G E 4 Photo: Shutterlk / Shutterstock Global market inflation Inflation rates are forecast to rise world- wide in 2021, with the USA seeing the sharpest increases in the second quar- ter of 2021. This rise in inflation rates contrasts with the downward trend of 2018-2020. This is likely a result of sharp increases to real GDP growth in 2021 compared to 2020, thanks to the easing of lockdown restrictions and the reopening of economies. Although it will continue on a trajectory of overall growth, worldwide real GDP growth is forecast to slow down in 2022. Please see the following page for CDI and GDP inflation graphs. trends E C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1 , Q 4 – P A G E 5 Photo: Sean Pavone / Shutterstock Real GDP, % change, year-on-year 10 .0% 5 .0% 0 .0% -5 .0% -10 .0% -15 .0% Source: OECD Economic Outlook (https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook_16097408) trends Global market inflation CPI Inflation, % change, year-on-year WorldG7EU*USAChina** 6 .0% 5 .0%