2022Q1全球宏观经济展望：正常化但并非如我们所知-HSBC-2022.01-126页

Disclosures a bigger financial cushion from asset price gains and fiscal stimulus payments; a surge in new business ation; and changes in immigration have all been among the factors, many of which will not be permanent. They will likely start to normalise at different rates, though, so the risk of higher wage growth continuing to broaden could grow: currently it is only the very low-paid low-productivity leisure sector that is seeing wages rise in real terms in the US. The continued strong rise in US capital spending, particularly tech, even in the midst of the pandemic, certainly signals firms are looking to automate more. This is hardly surprising given the labour and skills shortages and rising pay demands. In the US, we forecast core PCE inflation to slow from 4.6% in Q1 2022 to 2.8% by the final quarter of 2022 and for things to get back to a new “normal” thereafter, albeit with a modest deterioration in the growth/inflation trade-off compared with pre-pandemic. That relies upon no major further slip higher in inflation expectations. We expect the Fed to halt its net asset purchases in March and forecast it to raise the Fed funds rate immediately after, followed by rate rises in June and September but then a short pause while it starts to shrink its balance sheet by end-2022. We expect a couple more rate rises in 2023, with the ECB also taking its first tentative step towards moving its negative policy rate back towards zero by the end of that year. Asia to fare better than other EM In this central scenario, we believe Asia is set to fare better than other emerging regions. Although many economies in Asia-Pacific are highly unlikely to sustain the rapid clip that we expect them to have registered in the final quarter of 2021, the growth outlook is fairly solid. Exports will inevitably be less supportive, but there is more room for catch-up on the consumer side than in other emerging economies where consumption is already way above pre-pandemic levels. The investment outlook also looks fairly bright, with FDI inflows having held up surprisingly well and a bigger push towards green investment in China. Although the currently very subdued inflation in Asia is set to creep a little higher in 2022 as consumer spending gradually improves, we expect inflation in Asia to remain much lower than in other EM, implying less of a squeeze on real wages. The appropriate monetary conditions for Asia in 2022 are also set to be more closely aligned than in many other EM with the likely course of Fed policy. There has not yet been much monetary tightening in the region. Far from it. Mainland China has just signalled a clear shift in policy focus in favour of supporting growth but by mid-2022 we anticipate that some modest rate increases will be appropriate for domestic financial conditions in many other parts of Asia. Moreover, assuming the USD appreciates, some modest currency depreciation will not be unwelcome in places, notably China. By contrast